BJ Murphy: North Carolina - Trump and Cooper’s Races to Lose
While reporters and TV talking heads continue to refer to North Carolina as a swing state, they are largely mistaken. We do not “swing” between Republicans and Democrats for president and governor much to the media’s chagrin. Our selection of US Senators, however, would qualify for that designation.
The reality is that NC tends to vote for Republican presidents, Democratic governors, and flip flops on US Senators. Since 1968 NC has voted for only two Democratic candidates for president and for only three Republicans for governor. In 2016, Donald Trump carried our state by 3.67%, yet NC unseated Republican Governor Pat McCrory for Democrat Attorney General Roy Cooper by 0.22%.
TV pundits often wallow in polls like pigs in mud, but Summer polling reflects fickle data, as many things can change in a couple of months. This year is no exception considering Covid-19, social unrest, hurricanes, mail-in ballot mania, and economic vulnerability. I believe John Hood to be correct, Summer polls are flawed. National polls mean absolutely nothing when it comes to states, and ultimately the Electoral College, choosing our next president.
Currently, former Vice President Joe Biden is shown in a basic tie with Trump in NC, and leading Trump in many other states. Media pundits were sure that the 2016 race was Hillary Clinton’s time to shine, and she did win the popular vote by a few million, but the excitement was not there like it had been for Obama, and the Electoral College handed her a sound defeat. Trump took 304 electoral votes, while Clinton received 227. The map was red, except for the predictable blue strongholds around New England and the West Coast, and a couple of other states.
Even though Summer polling has its flaws, our governor’s race seems to be Cooper’s race to lose, and betting on a Democrat may seem prudent given historical trends. However, Lt. Governor Dan Forest’s campaign to get NC back to work amid Cooper’s handling of Covid-19 has a couple more months to resonate with voters. Not to mention that any traditional bump for the Republican presidential nominee in NC should benefit Forest.
Since 1954 NC has voted for six Democrats and seven Republicans in the US Senate, which could explain why Thom Tillis’s seat is vulnerable. Cal Cunningham is proving to be a solid contender as well. Given Trump’s inability to capitalize on drawing major crowds this year and Biden’s gaffe-prone tendencies, the national races seem even more unpredictable.
The lingering question remains, “How will the Trump/Biden contest impact the US Senate, Gubernatorial race and down-ballot contests?”
One thing is sure...this will be one of the most unpredictable elections in state or American history given Covid-19’s impact on the voting process, let alone the omission of traditional campaign stump speeches. So, brace yourselves for the oncoming political ad bombardment via your text messages, email, YouTube, news feeds, radio, and more.
The “new normal” some politicians have been talking about may change the process of electioneering, but North Carolina will not be an easy box to check for anyone.
And history will teach us another lesson.
